Uh Oh For the Mets

Last night my Mets played second fiddle to the debut of Stephen Strasburg.  Simply put, Strasburg was amazing.  His blend of pitches–including a 100 mile per hour 2 seam and 4 seam fastball, with a wicked curveball–coupled with impeccable control and a mature poise that would even make Mark Sanchez’ biggest fluffers jealous, absolutely overpowered Major League hitters.  The traditional scouts and the new-wave sabermatricians all were left drooling at the skills.  I found myself on the edge of my seat, cheering out loud and fist-pumping nearly every strike.  Sure I was excited to watch Strasburg’s debut even before the game started and I was certainly intrigued.  But watching the game, I was fully engrossed and enthralled with not just the skill, but the way Strasburg went about dominating the Pirates. As everyone knows, the Pirates are not MLB’s finest hitting team.  That being said, the ease with which Strasburg sat down even Pittsburgh’s best hitters (Andrew McCutchen is no slouch), and the complete control he exhibited in doing so left no doubt in any viewers mind that the future is bright for both Strasburg and the Nationals organization.

Were Strasburg the only glimmer of light for the Nats organization this debut would have been completely different, but add in this year’s draft phenom–Bryce Harper–and one of the best young infielders in the entire game in Ryan Zimmerman, and you have the making of a future contender for years to come.  When Zimmerman stepped up to the plate in his first at bat, I said out loud: “here comes a home run.”  He is the kind of player who recognizes the spotlight and elevates his already impressive game along with the stakes.  I witnessed this firsthand when in the midst of the Mets epic 2007 collapse, Zimmerman on the last-place Nats almost singe-handedly destroyed the Mets playoff chances with his stellar defense and clutch bat at the plate.  Once Harper enters the MLB mix, a kid featured on the front cover of Sports Illustrated as a power-hitting 16 year old catcher, one has to wonder how there will be enough room in the limelight for all these studs to share.

All in all, this week has to be viewed as a coming out party for the Washington Nationals as an organization.  The message was sent loud and clear to the National League East and their geographic neighbor–the Baltimore Orioles–that this team will win plenty of games and fans over the next few years.  As a Mets fan, I can only shrug my shoulders and sigh, for this is as clear as a sign as any that the Mets missed their window and are likely to be banished to the basement of the National League East.  Alongside the excitement of watching Strasburg came this tingling fear as to the future of my beloved Mets.  See, as a Mets, Jets and Islanders fan coming of age in the early 90s, I really felt like these Mets of the 2000s were my best hope at experiencing a championship (I was alive in ’82-83 for the Isles and ’86 for the Mets, but have not even the vaguest memory of victory).

The Nats, Braves (I’m talking about you, Jay Hey!) and Marlins (Mike Stanton was yesterday’s other high profile prospect debut) all boast some of the league’s premier prospects and the Phils farm system is not too bad in its own right.  There is a wave of youth taking the league by storm, and unfortunately the Mets lack the organizational depth and the upside of their peers.  This years draft only serves to highlight that phenomenon with the Mets opting to pass on upside in an effort to obtain the “sure” thing.  Whereas before it seemed as though the Mets window was being shut internally with a combination of organization ineptitude and an aging core, this year it is becoming increasingly clear that the window is shutting from externally with a slew of premiere young talent in the division.

Talking Baseball

Just before the season began, I wrote a little blurb about my fantasy baseball keepers. Right about now seems like a good time to check back in with the National Pastime.   AZ has been so intently focused on the chaos in finance lately that baseball has been somewhat overlooked.  I continue to micromanage my fantasy team and suffer through most Mets games, but in terms of expressing my baseball thoughts, I have been rather sluggish.  Here are some of my observations thus far:

1.  I started the season with 3 teams named It’s Al-Wright.  After drafting Jason Heyward in my keeper league, I changed names to Say Hey Jay Hey and left the other two team-names in tact.  And yes, I am making that comparison between Say Hey Willie Mays and Jason Heyward.  Although I never witnessed Willie Mays play the game in person, I just get a certain “feeling” about this mystique with Heyward and the awesome blend of skills.  The guy hits for contact, hits for power, steals bases, has great range in the field and cannon of an arm.  We’ve yet to see a basket catch or over-the-shoulder grab, but the hype is legit and the skills are real.

2.  The Mets just this past week actually won a come-from-behind game, overcoming a 6-1 (rather significant) deficit.   This was monumental for two reasons: rather than letting the game get out of hand, the bullpen kept it close, and the offense actually stepped up, filled the gap, and took the lead.  Key hits in the rally came from rookies Ike Davis and Chris Carter, with David Wright adding an important double. This was the first time in a while I actually can say I believe that the Mets have a chance.  Good teams win games they have no business winning and the Mets did just that in stealing one from the Nats.

3.  Mets fans are idiots.  Anyone who boos David Wright just has no clue.  He is an awesome baseball player.  Sure he’s struggling, but he is ALREADY an all-time great Mets players.  The guy plays hard everyday and wants nothing more than to succeed.  Booing him does not help!  Ok don’t cheer for him if you don’t want to, but he has done nothing that warrants the ire of his team’s fans.

4.  And lastly, let’s briefly talk about some of my fantasy team players/draftees/favorites.  Ubaldo Jimenez is an ace with a dominant fastball.  Joey Votto looks totally legit and by year end will be regarded as a top tier 1b (well Pujols is in the top tier alone, but Tier 1a I guess).  Adam Jones is thoroughly disappointing and the victim of over-hype syndrome combined with a terrible supporting cast.

That’s about it for now.  I’ll be back with more soon.

Value Hunting (Fantasy Baseball Edition)

My 2010 auction league keepers are in. Before I divulge my team’s core, let me just quickly explain the rules. Each team can keep up to 8 players (it’s an 11 team league) and receives $260 in bidding dollars for the auction. For those experienced fantasy baseballers, you’ll know what I mean when I say the rules are standard 5 x 5 with one slight twist–rather than K’s we use K/9. Any player at <$4.5 in the prior year is kept for $5 the present year; any player greater than $4.5 but <$9.5 is kept for $10; and any player kept for >$10 gets hit with a 50% inflator. For example, Albert Pujols, drafted at $49.5 last year would be $74.5 (round to the nearest 1/2) in the present year. Pujols is unquestionably an amazing player; however no team can afford to allocate nearly 30% of their cap space on one player. In the end, the draft and trading end up playing out as one big math puzzle/stock market where the variables/equities are baseball players.

And the last bit of relevant info I’m sure everyone is dying to know: this year my team name is “It’s Al-Wright.”  Not sure I believe that, but 2010 in the stock market is all about complacency; why should baseball/the Mets be any different?  2008-09, the Mets followed the economy and stock market lower.  I’m calling for a reversal in 2010.

With the framework of this puzzle now clear, here are my 2010 keepers (salaries in parenthesis) and my brief thoughts about each player:

• Ryan  Braun ($15)–The “Hebrew Hammer” is a consensus first round pick this year. After last year’s injury bug bit hard, I traded Carl Crawford ($40), David Price (unkept) and Matt Cain ($18) for what should hopefully end up as 3+ years of solid value and production.  Approximately $30 worth of value this year.

• Ryan Zimmerman ($10)–I drafted him in year one of the history of this league at $12 and kept him for $18 the following year.  Sure enough in year 3 I scooped him up for $9.5 in the auction last year.  With 3b particularly thin and Adam Dunn finally giving Zimmerman some protection, my bullishness is reaching bubble-like proportions.  I am triple leveraged to Zimmerman (drafted him in my 2 other leagues already) and anticipate approximately $25, and maybe $32 worth of value.

• B.J. Upton ($15)–”The Bossman” or other Upton coming into Spring Training was a borderline keeper for me; however so far he has effectively demonstrated that last year was an injury-riddled fluke.  Slightly less bullish here, but still anticipate a modest $10 in value.

• Adam Jones ($5)–”I’m not Pacman” should be able to build upon last years breakout.  I love that Orioles lineup and think they have the potential to all grow well together.  Anticipating approximately $15 in value here.

• Joey Votto ($10)–Another triple leveraged player for me (yes I know in the market those triple levered funds can get dangerous…I know my risks). Two years ago I packaged Ervin Santana and Votto for Pujols in a failed late-season dash for first place.  This offseason I finally righted my past wrong in trading Kendry Morales ($5) and Julio Borbon ($5) for this slugging Canuck.  This is the year that Votto steps into the top tier of 1b and gives me a solid $30 worth of value.

• Clayton Kershaw ($10)–This up-and-coming lefty pitcher emerged as a stellar prospect two years ago and has done nothing but back up the hype since then. The ceiling is unknown (over time you’ll see that with both baseball players and investments I look for situation the young upstart with a limitless ceiling). It would not shock me to see a Lincecum-type season within the next two years. Pitching in the friendly confines of Chavez-Ravine certainly doesn’t hurt. Pitchers don’t go for quite as much as hitters; however, I anticipate a solid $10 of value with the chance for an upside surprise.

• Ubaldo Jimenez ($5)–This is an outright steal. Last year, Ubaldo owned the best fastball in the league. Forget about Coors Field–Jimenez’ fastball is so effective that he would quiet the juiced up bats of the 90s. I am looking for a strong $20 in value with this keeper!

• Adam Wainwright ($15)–Might end up giving my team the least “value” out of the pack; but he definitely has the highest floor out of my pitchers. Ever since he buckled Beltran’s knees I have had a fantasy baseball man-crush (was gonna link to the picture but couldn’t stomach the idea of finding it…unfortunately I was at that game). That curve ball is flat-out nasty. Looking for about $10 in value right here.

So there you have it. The 2010 “It’s Al-Wrights” are the envy of the league to start that season. That means only one thing: the pressure is on for the draft! Tomorrow evening Day 1 of the 2 day event begins. There will certainly be updates about this team throughout the season.  Sometime before Opening Day I’ll step up with my Mets preview.